Deforestation and forest degradation are among the largest drivers of global warming. The IPCC estimates that reducing them could avoid up to 5.8 billion tonnes of carbon emissions a year. But the category has lost the confidence of buyers. Retirements of avoided deforestation certificates peaked at nearly 61 million in 2021, then fell to just 35 million in 2025 as overcrediting eroded trust.
Today, we're announcing the development of a new protocol to restore it, supporting projects that prevent unplanned deforestation and degradation, as opposed to clearance that's been legally authorized. These projects work by addressing the social and economic pressures that drive unauthorized forest clearance, whether through agricultural expansion, fire, or illegal logging.
The protocol will introduce three innovations designed to bring trust back to avoided deforestation:
- Dynamic baselines. A baseline estimates what deforestation would have happened without a project. Methodologies have historically fixed these against past regional rates and locked them in for years. Isometric will set baselines against real-world control areas instead, recalculated at each certificate issuance, so certificates can't be issued against an outdated forecast of deforestation risk.
- 100% assumed leakage. Leakage, the risk that deforestation is displaced rather than reduced, has historically been deducted at rates of 0 to 21%, while research puts real leakage at 20 to 70%. Isometric will assume 100% leakage by default, reducing that figure as developers demonstrate and monitor that deforestation hasn't moved elsewhere.
- Root causes. The economic and social pressures that drive communities to clear land have never been accounted for in avoided deforestation certificates; at best, they're a requirement to meet. Isometric will build them into the calculation itself, requiring developers to demonstrate that those pressures have been addressed, in partnership with the community, before certificates are issued.
Dr. Tom Swinfield, Associate Professor at the University of Cambridge and Chair of the Scientific Council at Haven, an initiative to catalyze a new generation of nature-based reductions credits with greater scientific rigor, said:
"The science for measuring the impact of reduced emissions from unplanned deforestation has moved a long way, and it is exciting to see this incorporated by a certification standard. Calculating baselines dynamically from real world evidence of how deforestation changes in comparable areas, and actively incentivizing projects to guard against leakage, is exactly what is needed. Both are principles central to the Haven Criteria."
Prof. Ed Mitchard, Co-founder and Chief Scientist of Space Intelligence, a satellite data company specialising in forest carbon and deforestation mapping, said:
"This is genuinely different from any existing REDD+ methodology. Rather than locking in a baseline in advance of each monitoring period, Isometric's approach compares what happens in the project to matching sites after the fact, the same dynamic approach modern reforestation methods use. Combined with a robust approach to leakage and community safeguards, it should remove the integrity concerns that have plagued REDD+ credits. Deforestation and forest degradation still cause about 15% of annual greenhouse gas emissions, and my hope is that this move unlocks the finance needed to finally bring that number to near zero."
Millions of hectares committed
Revalue, which develops next generation credits with projects at scale, is transitioning to Isometric for future portfolio projects, covering millions of hectares of forest across the globe. Stuart Rowland, Founder and CEO of Revalue, said:
"Revalue has been leading the development of scientifically rigorous reductions credits. One of the biggest barriers has been finding a next generation certification methodology that raises the scientific bar while also delivering greater speed and assurance. We believe Isometric's new protocol is a game changer for reductions credits, bringing their scientific rigor in line with removals, and we hope other standards follow."
Imperative, a multi-jurisdictional ecosystem restoration and management company backed by up to $1.25 billion in project funding agreements, is developing forest conservation projects, which will be certified by Isometric under the upcoming protocol. Scobie Mackay, CEO of Imperative, said:
"We believe that the protection and conservation of critical standing ecosystems is crucially important in the fight against the dual climate and biodiversity crises facing us, and must be pursued alongside a commitment to high quality biodiverse ecosystem restoration efforts. Ecosystem protection and conservation outcomes can and should be delivered to an infrastructure grade of quality, and we believe that Isometric's methodology is an important enabler of these efforts."
The protocol is being developed in-house by Isometric's Science Team with input from the independent Science Network of more than 500 academic experts. It will enter public consultation by November 2026, after which it will be finalized and projects can begin certification under it.
Isometric has rapidly become one of the leading certifiers for nature-based carbon removal. We now work with 35 projects across six protocols and have won over many of the market's largest developers. That success comes down to a combination of scientific rigor and speed, which have earned trust in our approach from buyers and developers alike. It's time to do the same for avoided deforestation.
